January 6, 2025

U.S. stocks closed higher to start the first full week of trading in 2026. Geopolitics dominated headlines following the U.S. capture of Venezuelan President Nicolas Maduro, sending the energy sector to the top of the leaderboard as crude oil prices rose 1.8% after an initially muted reaction. Equities were otherwise unphased as nearly 70% of S&P 500 names gained ground with notable strength in banks and financials. Nonetheless, artificial intelligence (AI) found its way into focus after NVIDIA (NVDA) stated demand remains strong and that its highly anticipated data center processors are in full production. However, stocks broadly appeared to enter waiting mode amid rotation dynamics ahead of Wednesday's JOLTS and ADP jobs data, and Friday’s payrolls report. 

Topics of the Week:

Strong Stock Market Performance: U.S. stocks delivered solid gains in 2025, with large growth companies and technology leaders leading the way. Staying invested paid off.

Communication Services Outperformed: This sector, which was a recommended overweight throughout 2025, was the top-performing sector for the second year in a row, benefiting from digital media and AI trends. 

What We Are Watching:

Emerging Market Surprise: Emerging markets (EM) surged early in 2025, in part due to a weaker U.S. dollar. LPL Research missed some upside before upgrading EM equities in May 2025.

Sector Timing Challenges: Financials and utilities produced some outperformance when LPL Research held a neutral or underweight stance. 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 1.5.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

The Consumer Electronics Show (CES) is a major focus this week, with AI chipmakers like Nvidia and AMD making key announcements. NVIDIA's stock rose following its new AI platform announcement, though concerns remain about the sustainability of the broader AI rally and increasing competition.

Tuesday – ---

Wednesday – ADP Employment Report

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services

Friday - Housing Starts and Permits, Consumer Sentiment

What's Trending

Venezuela’s Place in Oil: What You Need to Know

Over the weekend, the United States launched a major military operation against Venezuela, targeting multiple locations across Caracas and surrounding areas. U.S. special forces captured the self-designated President Nicolas Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores, flying them to New York to face federal charges on narco-terrorism and drug-trafficking allegations. Here are the key points you should know:

  • Roughly 50% of Venezuela's exports head to the U.S., making this Latin American economy heavily dependent on healthy trade relations with the U.S.
  • China only receives 10% of total Venezuelan exports. The remaining top five export partners are Spain (9%), Brazil (6%) and Turkey (5%). 1
  • One of the founding members of OPEC, Venezuela is a key player in the global supply of crude oil with an economy uniquely exposed to oil markets. Over 77% of Venezuelan exports are petroleum products.2
  • As it relates to market impacts, Venezuela produces only 1 million barrels per day (bpd), so short-term supply shocks from the conflict should have only a limited immediate effect. For perspective, the U.S. produces over 21 million bpd.
  • Furthermore, ample inventories and strong output from other OPEC members and non-OPEC producers provide a buffer against geopolitical shocks, keeping price volatility contained. 

1 https://www.cia.gov/the-world-factbook/field/exports-partners/ 
2 https://atlas.hks.harvard.edu/countries/862

 

 

*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.