October 15, 2025

The S&P 500 posted a swift rebound to start the week, retracing a sizeable portion of Friday’s slide to mark the equity benchmark’s best session since May. Monday’s risk-on mood was broadly tabbed to waning U.S.-China trade tensions after both sides displayed willingness to meet and negotiate. Consumer staples were the notable sector-level laggard. Elsewhere, gold rallied 2.3% to surpass the $4,100/ounce mark.

 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 10.14.25

In Focus

Topics of the Week:

  • Market Performance: The S&P 500 has experienced a strong first three years, rising 16.1% since bottoming on October 12, 2022, nicely above the historical average.

  • Bull Market Longevity: The current bull market is entering its fourth year; historically, bull markets last five years, on average, while some go much longer, suggesting this one has more room to grow, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

  • Economic Growth: The economic backdrop remains supportive of the continuation of this bull market.

  • Supportive Federal Reserve: The Federal Reserve is maintaining a dovish stance, which can help power this bull market forward by helping keep calm in the bond market.

  • Corporate Earnings: Strong corporate earnings, especially in the technology sector, are expected to continue, on the back of the AI revolution.

What We Are Watching:

  • Geopolitical Tensions: Ongoing geopolitical issues could potentially impact markets.

  • Potential Policy Shifts: There is a risk of sharply higher tariffs on China, which could affect the market.

  • Sticky Inflation: Inflation remains a concern and could influence monetary and fiscal policy.

  • Slowing Labor Market: Signs of a slowing labor market could indicate economic challenges.

  • Market Leadership: The market's performance has been heavily reliant on the Magnificent Seven technology stocks; broader leadership is needed for sustained growth.

 

Key things to watch for:

The major financial market focus this week is on the start of the third-quarter corporate earnings season, particularly reports from major banks and semiconductor companies. However, a prolonged US government shutdown has delayed key economic data releases, including the Consumer Price Index (CPI) and retail sales, which were originally scheduled for release. 

For the week of October 13, 2025, the U.S. economic calendar features several key reports:

Monday – Columbus Day

Tuesday – Small Business Optimism Index

Wednesday – Consumer Price Index (CPI) – Delayed

Thursday – Producer Price Index (PPI) – Likely Delayed, Initial Jobless Claims

Friday – Building Permits

 

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