November 19, 2025

U.S. Treasuries, the U.S. dollar, and U.S. equities all struggled last week. Markets have been heavily driven by sentiment all year, and the anti-U.S. sentiment looked to be back again. Amidst the government reopening, the worst-performing markets were U.S. small-caps, and the best-performing markets were Europe. The best performing sectors in the S&P 500 were health care, energy, and consumer staples.

 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 11.7.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

Topics of the Week:

  • Fiscal Policy Support: The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) is expected to boost corporate profits and help sustain mid-single-digit revenue growth.

  • AI Investment Surge: Hyperscalers are projected to increase AI-related capital expenditures to nearly $520 billion in 2026, a 30% increase from 2025, driving potential productivity gains and cost savings.

  • Favorable Market Conditions: Historically, stocks have performed well when the Fed cuts rates while the economy avoids recession, suggesting a positive outlook, though past performance does not guarantee future results.

What We Are Watching:

  • Lofty AI Expectations: High expectations for AI are reflected in stretched valuations, posing a risk if these expectations are not met.

  • Potential Sources of Market Volatility: Factors such as upward pressure on long-term interest rates, midterm election year policy uncertainty, and U.S.-China trade tensions could contribute to market volatility.

  • Growing Credit Risks: Defaults and high-profile bankruptcies have increased, and credit spreads remain near 20-year lows, offering limited compensation for growing risks.

 

 

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*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.