June 4, 2025
Domestic equities notched gains last week to conclude an impressive month, with the S&P 500 adding +6.29%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average +4.16%, and the Nasdaq Composite +9.65% in May. US Treasuries tightened across all the curve, with five-year yields falling furthest as the belly of the curve felt the most action. Notably, JPM head Jamie Dimon cautioned last Friday that a crack in the bond market requiring Fed intervention “is going to happen,” before adding “unfortunately, it may be that we need that to wake us up.” Major trade developments last week included the CIT court issuing a temporary stay on US “reciprocal” tariffs (though not duties covered under Sections 232 and 301) which was immediately appealed, and a doubling of US steel import tariffs, to 50%. Elsewhere, OPEC+ agreed to a third consecutive sizable production increase over the weekend.
Index Data & Market Performance
In Focus
Prior week economic data was fairly stout, with the standout April PCE and Core PCE Index data last Friday registering in-line with consensus economist expectations. Soft data from the Conference Board and the final University of Michigan indexes surprised to the upside last week, as consumers seemingly are becoming accustomed to near daily (and often conflicting) trade news headlines. The week ahead brings meaningful jobs data with imperative clues to the current health of the US labor market (JOLTS Tuesday, ADP Wednesday, Nonfarm Payrolls Friday). Consensus estimates for the headline government jobs report expect 125K jobs added in May, with the U-3 unemployment rate to remain at 4.2%. Fed Chair Jay Powell is set to speak Monday; expect he and fellow FOMC speakers this week to reiterate the “wait-and-see” mantra regarding future rate cuts.
The following economic data is slated for release in the week ahead:
Monday: May S&P Final US Manufacturing PMI; May ISM Manufacturing; April Construction Spending; Fed Chair Jerome Powell Speaks
Tuesday: April Factory Orders; April JOLTS; Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee & Federal Reserve Governor Lisa Cook Speak
Wednesday: May ADP Employment; May S&P Final US Services PMI; May ISM Services
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims; 1Q 2025 (Final) US Productivity; Federal Reserve Governor Adriana Kugler Speaks
Friday: May US Employment Report & Unemployment Rate; April Consumer Credit
