March 11, 2026

President Trump hinted that airstrikes in the Middle East may be over soon; however, reports of an oil tanker explosion and refinery closure in the Middle East and remarks from Iran that oil flow will not continue until strikes stop capped losses in crude prices to around $90 per barrel. On Tuesday, after briefly spiking above $100 per barrel, crude oil prices reversed gains, supporting a healthy advance for the S&P 500 led by technology and communication services shares.

Topics of the Week:

  • Leaders: The best-performing sectors in the S&P 500 were energy, technology, and consumer discretionary. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, large-cap growth did the best.

  • Unlikely to be Derailed: The global economy is unlikely to be derailed. In the short-term, the U.S. markets offer a relatively safer port in the storm relative to Asian and European markets, which are more oil and gas dependent. 

What We Are Watching:

  • Headline Sensitivity: The conflict has widened beyond recent Middle East flare-ups, and timelines are uncertain, keeping markets reactive to day-to-day news.
  • Energy Prices as Swing Factor: A lasting move above $100 oil would raise recession odds; investors should watch oil trends as a real-time barometer of the conflict’s economic impact.

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 3.9.26 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

The February U.S. jobs report was one of the worst we have had relative to expectations in years. The January jobs report was relatively strong (although it was hugely reliant on health care jobs), but February made January look more like a fluke. The overall job gains came in at -92k with an expectation of +60k. The report just showed how important health care and education jobs are to the U.S. job market; if those jobs are taken out, job growth has been virtually non-existent. 

Tuesday – China imports/exports, U.S. NFIB/Existing home sales

Wednesday – Consumer Price Index (CPI), Monthly U.S. Federal Budget

Thursday – Producer Price Index (PPI), U.S. Trade Deficit (Jan)

Friday – U.S. PCE/JOLTS 

 

What's Trending

Strait Talk

The center of this crisis lies in the Strait of Hormuz, a vital waterway that carries 20% of the world’s oil supply. Oil and liquified natural gas (LNG) traffic through the strait is at a standstill, but at this point, we don’t have any reason to expect the logjam to continue for more than a few weeks. 

The strait is 21 miles wide at its narrowest point, forming a seaway passage between Iran and Oman. Its two unidirectional sea lanes facilitate the transit of around 20 million barrels of oil per day, primarily from producers like Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq, and Qatar.

 

 

Here is what we know: 

Investors got a glimpse of how fast the geopolitical backdrop can change with the stock market’s sharp intra-day reversal after President Trump indicated the war in Iran was likely to be over soon. Brent crude fell from $119.50 to below $90 in less than 24 hours.

President Trump controls the timeline, and midterms are a powerful incentive to get prices at the pump and mortgage rates down. 

We wouldn't dismiss the risk of further retaliation from an Iranian regime facing an existential threat. It will take some time to fully restore tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

 

 

Despite the severity of these events and the uncertain path forward, a historical stock market perspective is helpful. History shows that markets often recover quickly once conditions stabilize, typically within days or a few weeks.

 

 

Sources: 

https://www.jhinvestments.com/market-intelligence

Disclosures

*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.