April 29, 2025
Domestic equities saw a relief rally begin on Tuesday and continue through Friday last week, with hopes of a thaw in US-China trade relations and prospective trade deals buoying equities. The three major averages all ended firmly in the green, with the Dow bouncing +2.52%, the S&P 500 +4.60%, and the Nasdaq Composite +6.73%. The VIX dropped -16.22% in the week while the dollar firmed and bond prices rose, with the 10-year Treasury yield dropping nearly 9 basis points on the week. First quarter earnings season is in full swing, with S&P 500 firms beating on revenues and EPS estimates at a 63.7% and 69.8% pace (respectively) to date. Lastly, FOMC members have begun broaching the possibility of upcoming interest rate cuts to support the labor market; while a reduction to the target rate at the May meeting is unlikely, Fed Fund Futures are fully pricing in a quarter-point cut by July.
Index Data & Market Performance
In Focus
Prior week economic data was mixed, with the March New Home Sales and Durable Goods Orders (bolstered by aircraft orders) reports arriving better than expected, while the March Leading Index and April flash S&P Services data missed consensus estimates. The final April University of Michigan sentiment component data released Friday improved modestly from the disastrous preliminary result (taken in the immediate wake of the “Liberation Day” fallout), though it remains depressed. The following week brings our first look at 1Q 2025 GDP on Wednesday, with consensus estimates expecting quarter-over-quarter growth of +0.4% annualized, in addition to the official April Change in Nonfarm Payrolls report on Friday. This week also marks the busiest yet for us in the current earnings season, with a dozen portfolio companies on our Voyager platform set to announce first-quarter results.
The following economic data is slated for release in the week ahead:
Monday:April Dallas Fed Manufacturing Activity
Tuesday: March JOLTs Report; April Conference Board Consumer Confidence
Wednesday: April ADP Employment Change; US GDP Annualized QoQ (Estimate: +0.4%); March Personal Income & Spending; March PCE & Core PCE
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims; April ISM Manufacturing; March Construction Spending
Friday: April Change in Nonfarm Payrolls (Estimate: 130K); March Factory Orders
