July 9, 2025
Domestic equity markets remain resilient, with both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq setting fresh all-time highs last Thursday to close out the abbreviated trading week, bolstered by the better-than-anticipated June jobs report, partially allaying fears of a weakening US economy. Even with US stocks hitting fresh new highs, international equities have strongly outperformed year-to-date, to the tune of over 12%. The 10-Year US Treasury closed out the week at 4.35%, which is actually 0.22% lower than where it began in 2025, despite rising as high as 4.79% in January. Perhaps the biggest surprise of the year thus far was the extent of US dollar weakness, which will serve as our What’s Trending topic this week. On the tariff front, the White House sent mixed messages on the tariff timeline, continuing to signal the July 9 tariff deadline as “not critical” (later extended to August 1) on the one hand, while threatening unilateral 25-40% tariffs on allies and adversaries alike (the adversaries were also threatened with an additional 10% “anti-American” tax) on the other hand. Oh, and the biggest bill ever passed in US history occurred last Friday, with the OBBB signed into law on Independence Day. Whatever the second half of the year has in store, it’s safe to say: expect the unexpected.
Index Data & Market Performance
In Focus
Economic data last week packed a punch, with the two manufacturing reports released on Tuesday slightly beating consensus estimates, while the JOLTS report on Tuesday and the Change in Nonfarm Payrolls on Thursday both came in considerably stronger than anticipated. We continue to stress the importance of the FOMC’s dual mandate: price stability (inflation) and maximum employment (jobs); the strong beat on jobs in the June data effectively pushed rate cut expectations out further into 2025 (and 2026, for that matter). The week ahead is rather light on economic releases, with the FOMC May Meeting Minutes arriving Wednesday serving as the standout. As for Fedspeak, Fed Chair Jay Powell also raised eyebrows last Tuesday at an ECB forum in Portugal, saying rates probably would’ve been cut further this year if not for tariffs and that he expects the impacts to begin to show in price data this summer. Have a wonderful week!
The following economic data is slated for release in the week ahead:
Monday: None Scheduled
Tuesday: June NFIB Small Business Optimism; June NY Fed Inflation Expectations; May Consumer Credit
Wednesday: May FOMC Meeting Minutes
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims; St. Louis Fed President Alberto Musalem and SF Fed President Mary Daly Speak
Friday: June Federal Budget Balance
