April 1, 2026

Market focus was dominated by a report indicating that President Trump told aides he is willing to end hostilities in Iran even if the de facto closure of the Strait of Hormuz remains in place, broadly overshadowing an Iranian strike on a fully laden Kuwaiti oil tanker and both sides’ recent pickup in threats — leaving crude prices fluctuating. Financials and utilities led gains while the technology and industrials sectors lagged, with a continued slide in chipmakers and momentum trades denting major averages and masking a solid session under the surface. 

Topics of the Week:

  • Corporate Resilience: Many companies have managed rising costs (such as tariffs, oil prices, and interest rates) better than expected, keeping profit margins relatively healthy.
  • Energy Independence Helps: The U.S. economy uses less oil than in the past and produces more domestically, which helps limit the overall economic impact of higher energy prices. 

What We Are Watching:

  • Market Volatility: Stock prices have moved lower and become more uneven as investors react quickly to headlines rather than long‑term fundamentals.
  • Higher Interest Rates: Rising bond yields can pressure stock valuations in the near term, especially for companies sensitive to borrowing costs.

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 3.30.26 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

The market is focused on high-impact labor and manufacturing data, alongside key corporate earnings. Yields on the 10-year Treasury note have eased slightly to around 4.31% after hitting eight-month highs last week. Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated a preference to "look past" the current energy-driven inflation spike.

Tuesday - Job Openings (JOLTS)

Wednesday – ISM Manufacturing Index

Thursday – Weekly Jobless Claims

Friday – Good Friday, Nonfarm Payrolls, Unemployment Rate 

 

What's Trending: Earnings Outlook Still Bright

The consensus estimate for first-quarter (Q1) earnings growth is 12.3%. As we know, barring a swift and sharp economic shock intra-quarter, companies do a tremendous job of beating estimates. In fact, S&P 500 earnings have historically beaten consensus estimates more than 90% of the time. We expect Q1 to be no different. 

  • Massive artificial intelligence investment and fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA) provide a solid foundation for revenue growth.
  • Strong exports out of South Korea and the latest bump up in manufacturing surveys add to our confidence that Q1 earnings will be solid.
  • Based on current estimates, about 80% of the earnings growth for the S&P 500 in Q1 is expected to be driven by the technology sector.

 

 

 

 

 

Disclosures

*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.