December 17, 2025

Last week, we examined the key factors that influenced the markets in 2025. With 2026 just around the corner, it's time to shift our focus from the past to our expectations for the upcoming year. Here are several important factors that deserve close attention as we look ahead to 2026:

  • The Fed’s policy trajectory remains central, with inflation trends and the labor market guiding the central bank. 

  • Corporate America’s resilience reinforces the case for maintaining equity exposure in line with long-term targets.

  • Opportunities exist in sectors aligned with growth in drivers such as AI, fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act (OBBBA), and changes in regulatory policy, but investors will want to maintain flexibility. 

  • We believe corrections are a price we must pay to pursue compelling returns over the long term.

  • Other factors to consider as investor attention shifts to the year ahead include increasing scrutiny around AI investment, midterm elections, the U.S. dollar, and ongoing geopolitical threats. 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 12.3.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

The main event driving market activity today is the release of the delayed U.S. labor market data for October and November.

  • November Nonfarm Payrolls: The U.S. economy added 64,000 jobs in November, which was above analyst expectations of 45,000.
  • Unemployment Rate: The unemployment rate rose to 4.6%, its highest level since September 2021, exceeding forecasts of 4.5%.
  • October Job Losses: October data was revised to show a loss of 105,000 jobs.
  • Wage Growth: Average hourly earnings growth slowed to 0.1% for November, below the 0.3% estimate. 

https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/stock-market-today-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-slip-as-jobs-report-beats-estimates-unemployment-rate-rises-230828624.html

 

 

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*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.