November 12, 2025

The recent earnings reports were positive; however, the economic data was not as favorable. The S&P 500 Q3 earnings growth rate rose to 13%, far exceeding the starting estimate of 7%. The best performing sectors in the S&P 500 last week were energy, health care, and REITs. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, mid-cap value did the best, and the value factor led more broadly. The services side of the global economy continues to be the bright spot. The jobs data had more twists last week. The ADP report came in better than expected at 42k, rising from the negative reading last month.

 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 11.7.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

Topics of the Week:

  • AI Investment Growth: AI investment is growing rapidly and becoming a key driver of the U.S. economy, with major tech companies leading the way.

  • Intellectual Property Contributions: Spending on intellectual property products, including software and R&D, has added 0.8 percentage points to GDP in Q2, the highest recorded. 

  • Strong Loan Demand: Large and middle-market firms are actively seeking loans, indicating ongoing investments in AI and automation.

  • Economic Composition Shift: Intellectual property products now account for about 7% of the economy, up from under 2% three decades ago, showing a significant shift.

What We Are Watching:

  • Overextension Risk: There is a risk of overinvestment in AI-related capital, which could lead to increased market volatility.

  • Government Shutdown Impact: The recent government shutdown may have disrupted data collection, reducing the clarity of economic indicators.

  • Concentration Risk: The market is increasingly dependent on a few large tech companies, which could heightened concentration risk.

  • Weakening Job Market: Signs of a weakening job market may prompt the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates.

  • Market Volatility: The surge in AI investment could cause higher market volatility, particularly in tech-heavy sectors

 

 

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*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.