December 10, 2025

The year was defined by a series of market events and technological advancements, such as the AI boom, that significantly shaped the financial landscape for investors worldwide. Each week in December, we will be reflecting on 2025 and what to look for in 2026. Here are a few topics to highlight first:

 Economy: Slow Start, Stronger Finish
The U.S. economy may start the year slowly, with growth below 1% in the first quarter, but is expected to rebound later to around 2%. AI-driven investment and fiscal stimulus should help avoid a recession, while inflation gradually moves toward 2.5%.

K-Shaped Economy

The White House has pivoted toward tackling affordability challenges. The K-shaped economy — where upper-income folks enjoy rising asset values while those living paycheck-to-paycheck struggle — remains a challenge. Policies to help lift the bottom half of the “K”, perhaps through the housing market, may help shore up the overall consumer spending picture.

Stocks: AI and Rate Cuts Drive Gains
The bull market is likely to continue, supported by massive AI investment and Federal Reserve rate cuts. While valuations are high and midterm elections could add volatility, these cycles create opportunities. Staying invested and using pullbacks to add exposure—especially in tech and communication services—could be rewarding.

Bonds: Income Over Price Appreciation
Bond yields remain attractive, with 10-year Treasuries expected between 3.75% and 4.25%. Returns will be driven by income rather than price gains. High-quality bonds and agency mortgage-backed securities are favored over riskier credit segments.

 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 12.3.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

The main driver of market sentiment this week is the Federal Reserve's final meeting of the year, which is expected to result in a 25-basis-point rate cut, the third of the year. Today, Wednesday, December 10, 2025, the FOMC will release its policy statement and economic projections at 7:00 PM MST, followed by Chair Powell's press conference at 7:30 PM MST. 

 

 

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*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.