January 22, 2025

This week, the big U.S. banks opened earnings season with mixed results. As of Friday, analysts projected that financials sector earnings rose 6.6% in the fourth quarter—slightly below the 8.2% average. The latest Consumer Price Index report showed that inflation held steady at a 2.7% annual rate in December—unchanged from November. Excluding volatile food and energy costs, core inflation remained at 2.6%. A U.S. small-cap benchmark outpaced its large-cap peers by a wide margin for the second week in a row. With its more than 2% weekly gain, the Russell 2000 Index was up nearly 8% on a year-to-date basis. 

 

Source: https://www.jhinvestments.com/market-intelligence 

Topics of the Week:

  • Strong Metals Momentum: Gold, silver, and other metals continued their powerful run into 2026, supported by rising demand, tight supplies, and strong investor interest.

  • Supportive Interest-Rate Outlook: The Federal Reserve is expected to cut rates this year, increasing the appeal of non-coupon-bearing securities like gold and silver.

  • Safe-Haven Buying Remains Strong: Ongoing geopolitical uncertainty — from tensions involving Iran, Russia-Ukraine, and other global hotspots — continues to boost interest in assets seen as protective during periods of instability. 

 

What We Are Watching:

  • Trade and Tariff Uncertainty: Export restrictions and tariff policy changes could disrupt markets and drive further volatility.
  • Global Supply Constraints: Production outages, underinvestment in mining, and geopolitical disruptions are tightening supply lines, increasing the risk of price spikes. 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 1.16.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

U.S. financial markets this week are experiencing significant volatility, primarily driven by geopolitical tensions surrounding President Trump's Greenland acquisition attempts and related tariff threats. During a keynote address at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, the US president called for "immediate negotiations" to acquire the Danish territory, saying only the US could ensure its security.*

Source: finance.yahoo.com

Key Reports

Tuesday – No major reports scheduled

Wednesday – Construction spending, U.S. Census Bureau

Thursday – Third-quarter GDP (second estimate), Weekly unemployment claims

Friday – Consumer Sentiment

What's Trending

Metals Melt-Up

The melt-up in the metals market that defined last year has extended its strength into the new year, reinforcing the commodity sector’s position as a leader. The record-setting run for gold has been somewhat surprising given the backdrop of a bull market cycle in stocks. Silver delivered an even more extraordinary performance, posting its best year since 1979. Silver, or as some call it, “poor man’s gold,” stole the spotlight from gold in 2025 after delivering a remarkable 148% price return. Policy dynamics ranging from robust central‑bank gold purchases to evolving trade and geopolitical strategies significantly influenced price action across the metals landscape. 

 

Disclosures

*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.