November 5, 2025

Stocks up and bonds up on the week. The best performing sectors in the S&P 500 were technology, energy, and industrials. Across U.S. Russell style & market cap indices, small-cap value did the best, and the value factor led more broadly. As for fixed income, the 10-year. treasury yield fell 1 bp on the week to 3.99%. The best performing parts of the bond market were preferreds, emerging market debt, and high yield.

 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 10.31.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

Topics of the Week:

  • U.S.-China Trade Truce: A temporary agreement has been reached, reducing tariffs and easing trade tensions.

  • China's Soybean Purchases: China has agreed to resume buying soybeans, which is good news for U.S. farmers and related industries.

  • Reduced Tariff Load: The effective U.S. tariff rate is now estimated to be around 13–14%, with the actual burden closer to 11%, which could boost corporate earnings. 

  • Impressive Corporate Earnings: 83% of companies have exceeded earnings per share estimates, supported by strong profit margins and growing revenues. 

  • Seasonal Market Strength: November is historically a strong month for the market, and the six-month period from November to May often provides additional seasonal support.

What We Are Watching:

  • Less Dovish Fed: The Federal Reserve's tone after the October Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting was less supportive of further rate cuts, potentially leading to increased market volatility. 

  • Lack of Clear Guidance: The Fed did not provide clear forward guidance, causing uncertainty among investors.

  • Dissent Among Policymakers: There is growing disagreement among Fed policymakers, which could affect future decisions.

  • Market Divergence: The recent rally in the S&P 500 has been driven by a few large companies, creating a risk of a false breakout.

  • Reduced Visibility: The market faces increased short-term risk due to reduced visibility into future economic conditions.

 

 

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*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.