February 19, 2026

This week, the software and technology heavyweights have supported the benchmarks as artificial intelligence (AI) angst appeared to ease. Treasury yields rose across the curve, and major commodities traded mostly higher. Consumer staples underperformed, while materials and energy also lagged due to wavering metals amid Lunar New Year holiday closures. Market fundamentals remain supportive, with improving jobs, moderating inflation, steady Fed policy, and strong, broad earnings across most sectors.

Topics of the Week:

  • Fiscal Stimulus Support: New government legislation, specifically the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" (OBBBA), is set to begin injecting roughly $270 billion into the economy. This stimulus includes business tax incentives and consumer savings that should bolster both industrial and consumer companies. 

  • Improving International Outlook: While domestic growth is a focus, the technical picture for "Emerging Markets" (economies of developing nations) is showing signs of improvement, suggesting that investment opportunities may be broadening globally. 

 

What We Are Watching:

  • The Cost of Tariffs: A persistent concern for company profits — or "earnings headwinds"—remains the additional cost associated with tariffs (taxes on imports). While companies are managing these well so far, they represent a recurring expense that could impact profit margins.
  • High Stock Valuations: Current stock prices are relatively high compared to the profits companies are making (a concept called "valuation"). Because so much optimism is already "baked into" the prices, the market may be more sensitive to any negative news. 

 

Index Data & Market Performance 

 

Data as of Market Close 2.17.25 

source: gemini.google.com*

In Focus

Following a market closure on Monday for Presidents' Day, the rest of the week is packed with data that could influence the Federal Reserve's next interest rate move in March. A report scheduled for release on Friday will show whether the U.S. economy’s recent rapid growth extended into last year’s fourth quarter. 

Tuesday – Home Builder Confidence

Wednesday – FOMC Meeting Minutes, Industrial Production

Thursday – Initial Jobless Claims, Pending Home Sales

Friday - Core PCE Price Index

 

What's Trending

Retail Reality Check

The retail landscape in early 2026 is defined by a stagnation in overall consumer spending. Recent Department of Commerce data shows that U.S. retail sales were flat (0.0% growth) in December 2025, missing the 0.4% expansion forecast by Wall Street. Major retail brands have announced thousands of store closures as they pivot to e-commerce or optimize underperforming locations.

Here are some key points regarding this shift in retail sales:

  • AI vs. Search: Google has integrated Etsy and Wayfair items directly into its agentic AI search, a move seen as a direct challenge to Amazon's search dominance.
  • GLP-1 Impact: The "Ozempic effect" is reshaping retail; apparel companies are shifting inventory to smaller sizes to meet surging demand, while grocery retailers report billions in lost sales from reduced snacking.
  • Sector Winners: Despite the broad flatline, certain niches saw growth: Sporting goods and books (+1.9%), gasoline stations (+1.4%), and non-store (online) retailers (+0.4%).
  • Outlook for 2026: Over 800 store closures are already planned for 2026, continuing a multi-year pullback by major chains like Macy’s, Pizza Hut, REI, Walgreens, and CVS. 

 

 

 

Disclosures

*The data for the total returns of the S&P 500, Dow Jones 30, and NASDAQ Composite are compiled and published by several financial news outlets, index providers, and government/academic sources.

Based on typical financial data providers and the search results, here are the likely sources for this data:

  • S&P Dow Jones Indices (S&P Global): This is the official index calculator for the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA). They publish index data, including total returns, in daily, weekly, and monthly reports/commentary.
  • Nasdaq Global Indexes: They are the official index calculator for the NASDAQ Composite. They also publish fact sheets and performance reports with total return data.
  • Financial News Agencies and Publications: News outlets like The Associated Press (AP) and financial publications like Investopedia regularly report on the daily, weekly, and year-to-date (YTD) returns of these major U.S. indexes.
  • Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) / St. Louis Fed: FRED, maintained by the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, is a public resource that often includes daily closing levels for indices like the S&P 500, which can be used to calculate returns.
  • Financial Data Platforms (e.g., Bloomberg, YCharts, MSCI): Professional and commercial financial data providers often republish or calculate returns based on the official index data for their clients.